{"id":6116,"date":"2022-01-31T14:39:20","date_gmt":"2022-01-31T13:39:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.climatefutures.no\/?p=6116"},"modified":"2022-02-04T08:29:59","modified_gmt":"2022-02-04T07:29:59","slug":"ny-studie-dekade-klimavarsel-fra-den-norske-klimaprediksjonsmodellen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatefutures.no\/ny-studie-dekade-klimavarsel-fra-den-norske-klimaprediksjonsmodellen\/","title":{"rendered":"Ny studie: Dekadevarsel fra den Norske Klimavarslingsmodellen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ingo Bethke, klimaforsker i Climate Futures, og hans medforfattere publiserte nylig en studie<\/strong><\/em> som evaluerer klimavarsel fra den norske klimavarslingsmodellen<\/strong><\/em> (NorCPM1). Ved \u00e5 ta hensyn til historiske observasjoner av havet som startbetingelser for dekadevarsel, forbedres modellens evne til \u00e5 retrospektivt varsle temperatur over land noen \u00e5r fram i tid. <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Figur 1: <\/strong>NorCPM produserer en mengde klimasimuleringer med Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) og bruker avansert data assimilasjon til \u00e5 inkludere havobservasjoner i modellsimuleringene. Dette gj\u00f8r det mulig \u00e5 synkronisere variasjonen i simuleringen med observerte klimavariasjoner, som gir et helhetlig estimat av usikkerhet og legger grunnlaget for sannsynlighetsvarsling. <\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Den norske klimavarslingsmodellen (NorCPM) er et nytt verkt\u00f8y for \u00e5 levere sesong-til-dekade klimavarsler (Figur 1). Den legger til evnen til dataassimilering <\/em>i den norske jordsystemmodellen (Norwegian Earth System Model – NorESM), som justerer modellen slik at de interne variasjonene i modellens klimasystem blir synkronisert med observasjonene p\u00e5 en fysisk konsistent m\u00e5te. Figur 2 viser at dataassimilering f\u00f8rer til at modellen reproduserer den observerte globale temperaturen mye bedre enn modell-simuleringene uten assimilering. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Figur 2: <\/strong>Global overflatetemperatur fra observasjoner (svart), NorESM uten dataassimilering (bl\u00e5) og NorCPM-reanalyse, i.e. NorESM med dataassimilering (r\u00f8d). Tykke linjer viser gjennomsnittet av de individuelle simuleringene, de tynne linjene viser resultater fra individuelle simuleringer. NorCPM-reanalysen gir startbetingelsene for NorCPM sine klimavarsler.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I en ny publikasjon med tittelen “NorCPM and its contributions to CMIP6 DCPP<\/a>“, som ble publisert i det vitenskaplige tidsskriftet Geoscientific Model Development, har et team av forskere ved Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit ved Bjerknessenteret beskrevet og evaluert NorCPM systemet. Simuleringene herfra er ogs\u00e5 en del av the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (CMIP6 DCPP), en viktig kilde til informasjon for FNs klimapanel sin sjette hovedrapport (IPCC AR6). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gruppen kj\u00f8rte mer enn 1000 numeriske simuleringer av retrospektive varsler av klimavariasjoner p\u00e5 nasjonale superdatamaskiner for \u00e5 f\u00e5 ny innsikt i klimaforutsigbarhet. Studien deres fokuserte p\u00e5 hvordan bruken av dataassimiering til \u00e5 bestemme startbetingelsene kan p\u00e5virke modellens varslingsferdighet p\u00e5 mellom\u00e5rlig-til-dekade tidsskala.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Studien fant at ved \u00e5 assimilere havobservasjonene inn i havmodell-komponenten forbedrer de klimaprediksjon over land for de neste \u00e5rene (Figur 3). Hvis havobservasjoner i tillegg blir assimilert inn i sj\u00f8is-komponenten blir prediksjonene enda bedre. Generelt gjorde bedre startbetingelser modellen bedre p\u00e5 \u00e5 varsle 1 \u00e5r fram i tid (f\u00f8rste panel), men den har ogs\u00e5 forbedret varslingsevnen p\u00e5 2-5 \u00e5rs tidsskala og 6-9 \u00e5r over Europa, Nord-Amerika og i Nord-Atlanteren og det Nordiske hav (oransje og r\u00f8de omr\u00e5der i Figur 3). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Figur 3: <\/strong>Evnen til \u00e5 varsle blir bedre av \u00e5 bruke dataassimilering til \u00e5 initialisere de interne klimavariasjonene. Omr\u00e5der i r\u00f8d viser forbedret korrespondanse med observert variasjon i overflatetemperatur i initialiserte NorCPM varsel sammenlignet med ikke-initialiserte NorESM simuleringer. Initialiseringsfordeler oppn\u00e5s p\u00e5 mellom\u00e5rlig til dekade tidsskala over b\u00e5de hav og land. <\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvorfor er dette relevant for Climate Futures?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– V\u00e5r ambisjon er \u00e5 transformere NorCPM fra et forskningsverkt\u00f8y til et operativt varslingssystem som gir klimavarsel i sanntid med h\u00f8y nok ferdighet til \u00e5 v\u00e6re samfunnsmessig nyttig, spesielt i v\u00e5r sosio\u00f8konomiske region, sier Bethke. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Til dette form\u00e5let lager vi NorCPM varsler betimelig og tilpasset m\u00e5te og bruker dem – sammen med varsler fra andre systemer – i Climate Futures aktiviteter som fokuserer p\u00e5 implementering av disse varslene hos partnerne. Videre vil disse aktivitetene veilede videre utvikling av NorCPM ved \u00e5 kommunisere tilbake ferdighetskrav, klimaparametere av spesiell interesse, i tillegg til merverdien av \u00e5 bruke NorCPM varsler. Oppgraderinger av the jordsystemkomponenten i modellen (slik som fysisk og dynamisk representasjoner og romoppl\u00f8sning), bruken av atmosf\u00e6riske og landobservasjoner i varselinitialisering og andre oppdateringer av varslingssystemet er p\u00e5 god vei. Hvordan dette arbeidet forbedrer NorCPM sine varsler vil bli demonstrert i kommende publikasjoner. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ingo Bethke, klimaforsker i Climate Futures, og hans medforfattere publiserte nylig en studie som evaluerer klimavarsel fra den norske klimavarslingsmodellen (NorCPM1). Ved \u00e5 ta hensyn til historiske observasjoner av havet […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":6121,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oct_exclude_from_cache":false,"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[137,138,213],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-nyheter","category-publications"],"yoast_head":"\nNy studie: Dekadevarsel fra den Norske Klimavarslingsmodellen - Climate Futures<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatefutures.no\/ny-studie-dekade-klimavarsel-fra-den-norske-klimaprediksjonsmodellen\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ny studie: Dekadevarsel fra den Norske Klimavarslingsmodellen - Climate Futures\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ingo Bethke, klimaforsker i Climate Futures, og hans medforfattere publiserte nylig en studie som evaluerer klimavarsel fra den norske klimavarslingsmodellen (NorCPM1). 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